Graupel mixing ratio forecast from a cloud resolving numerical weather prediction model as a tool for lightning activity prediction

Graupel mixing ratio over Bulgaria for the warm half year of 2021 based on AROME-BG numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, is evaluated and connected lightning data detected by ATDnet location network. Lightning forecasted graupel ratios were considered resolutions 5×5 km 10×10 with flash rate one three hours, as well a daily base using upscaling neighborhood method. Two model runs are – at 06 18 UTC. Commonly used skill-scores in meteorological forecasts evaluation metrics probability detection (POD), false alarm (F), proportion correct index (PC), frequency bias (FBI). forecast (based ratio) diurnal, monthly, spatial bases. Results show that taken from cloud resolving NWP could be tool to relatively high performance. Decreases resolution time lead improvement (POD) (FBI) slight deterioration its (F) percent impact more pronounced.